Outdoor workers in the world鈥檚 lower-latitude tropical forests may face a greater risk of heat-related deaths and unsafe working conditions because of deforestation and climate warming, according to a led by The Nature Conservancy, the 乱伦社区 and Indonesia鈥檚 Mulawarman University.
In the study, researchers found that increased temperatures of 0.95 C (1.7 F) in the deforested areas of Berau Regency, Indonesia, between 2002 and 2018 were linked to roughly 118 additional deaths in 2018, and 20 additional minutes of daily conditions too hot for humans to work in safely. Future climate warming of 2 C (3.6 F) above 2018鈥檚 levels could increase deaths in Berau by 20% (approximately 282 additional annual deaths) and another five unsafe work hours per day 鈥� even without greater deforestation.
鈥淎mbient heat exposure and internal body heat from heavy physical work can increase the risk of heat-related illnesses, including heat exhaustion and heat stroke 鈥� which can be fatal 鈥� as well as acute kidney injury and traumatic injuries,鈥� said聽 co-author , associate professor and assistant chair of environmental and occupational health sciences in the UW School of Public Health.
Researchers point out that the increase in heat-related deaths with a 2 C rise in global temperatures would be comparable to mortality from other long-term public health challenges in Asia, such as tobacco smoking. In addition, they write, 鈥渨orkers in Berau are already adapting to hotter temperatures due to deforestation, suggesting those engaged in outdoor work may already be approaching their adaptive capacity through behavioral adaptations.鈥�
The study in Lancet Planetary Health used publicly available and secondary data such as satellite monitoring of forest cover, temperatures, climate models, population densities, and the report published annually in The Lancet by the UW Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Researchers focused on Berau as an area emblematic of tropical forest regions facing rapid deforestation.
鈥淎pproximately 800 million people live and work in the world鈥檚 tropical forest nations,鈥� Spector said. 鈥淭hese forests can act as natural air conditioners and sequester carbon, thus having implications for both climate change adaptation and mitigation. Information from this modeling study should be considered in discussions about trade-offs between economic welfare, human health, the natural environment and decisions about climate change adaptation and mitigation.鈥�
Other UW authors of the study are , graduate student, and , professor and Tamaki Endowed Chair, in the Department of Atmospheric Science; and , professor of global health and environmental and occupational health sciences in the School of Public Health. For complete list of authors and more about the study see The Nature Conservancy鈥檚 .
The study was supported by a pilot research grant from the UW Population Health Initiative.